KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
At least 7% 88%Líder entre 6 opciones
Calidad del mercado
34 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
86,2 €
Baja liquidezSpread
6.0 pt
Spread amplioDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 minutos
11 sept 26, 20:00 UTC20 sept 27, 14:00 UTC
Tendencias
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by SPD in the 2026 Berlin state election is 5% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:Der Landeswahlleiter für Berlin
- The percentage is (second votes received by the party ÷ total valid second votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places.
- Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from numerator and denominator.
- Except as provided in the Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution provisions, use certified/official results; unofficial results or media declarations may be used only as those provisions allow.
- If voting is cancelled, suspended, or postponed before it concludes, or no results (certified or unofficial as reported by the Source Agencies) are available by expiration, resolve No, subject to those provisions.
- If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, use the most recent certified percentage.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
Mercados abiertos
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.4pt25.3%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13.7%
- Marco Rubio+3.5pt13.7%
+49 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 607,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 606,4 mil €
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.2pt35.4%
- Édouard Philippe-1.0pt28.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.1%
+38 resultados más
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff+1.0pt17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 186,4 M €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.6pt49.5%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva48.5%
- Renan Santos+0.2pt2%
+16 resultados más
KALSHI2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- J.D. Vance22.9%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt12.5%
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt11.5%
+27 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 56,8 M €
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.1pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-1.8pt12%
+48 resultados más
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- What will Trump say this week?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Texas Senate winner?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Berlin state election: SPD vote share??
- Kalshi cotiza At least 7% al 88% a fecha de 13 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Berlin state election: SPD vote share??
- Está previsto que Berlin state election: SPD vote share? se resuelva el 20 de septiembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Berlin state election: SPD vote share??
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by SPD in the 2026 Berlin state election is 5% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- ¿Dónde más está listado Berlin state election: SPD vote share??
- La misma pregunta también está listada en Polymarket.