Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
One-OffPolítica comercialPolítica de EE. UU.América Latina2m
KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requeridoDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPunto medio del libro seleccionado
U.S.–Mexico interim agreement · —
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Precio guardado
U.S.–Mexico interim agreement 35%Líder entre 8 opciones
U.S.–Mexico interim agreement 35%Calidad del mercado
47 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
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Interés abierto
12,2 mil US$
Interés abierto medioCompra / Venta
— / —
U.S.–Mexico interim agreementSpread
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 44 minutos
23 jul 26, 16:30 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
El gráfico y los cambios muestran probabilidades históricas guardadas, no el libro seleccionado en directo.
Tendencias
Fila seleccionada: punto medio del libro. Otras filas: referencias guardadas, posiblemente normalizadas; los cambios de 24h usan el historial guardado.
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Kalshi
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- Cierre anticipado:
- Sí
- Plazo de liquidación:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidad de mercado · U.S.–Mexico interim agreement
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PolymarketReglas
If the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressThe VergeBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- This event is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Reglas de cada resultado
- U.S.–Mexico interim agreement
- If the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- U.S.–Canada interim agreement
- If the United States and Canada reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trilateral revised deal
- If the United States, Mexico, and Canada jointly announce, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, an agreement in principle establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA while preserving it as a trilateral agreement, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- U.S. withdrawal notice
- If the United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Formal 16-year extension
- If the United States, Mexico, and Canada each provide the written head-of-government confirmation required by Article 34.7 to extend USMCA for another 16-year term after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Formal USMCA amendment
- If an amendment to USMCA enters into force under Article 34.3 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Canadian withdrawal notice
- If Canada provides the United States and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Mexican withdrawal notice
- If Mexico provides the United States and Canada written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.