Will Trump issue a blanket pardon for administration staff?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.ElecciónCrimen y justicia2a
KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requeridoDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPunto medio del libro seleccionado
Before Jan 21, 2029 · —
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Precio guardado
Before Jan 21, 2029 81.5%Líder entre 3 opciones
Before Jan 21, 2029 81.5%Calidad del mercado
52 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
249,1 €
Interés abierto
477,4 US$
Interés abierto bajoCompra / Venta
— / —
Before Jan 21, 2029Spread
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 minutos
27 oct 26, 21:00 UTC21 ene 29, 15:00 UTC
El gráfico y los cambios muestran probabilidades históricas guardadas, no el libro seleccionado en directo.
Tendencias
Fila seleccionada: punto medio del libro. Otras filas: referencias guardadas, posiblemente normalizadas; los cambios de 24h usan el historial guardado.
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Kalshi
Estas condiciones son informativas; las operaciones simuladas de CoinRithm siguen sus propias reglas.
- Cierre anticipado:
- Sí
- Plazo de liquidación:
- 5m (informativo)
Profundidad de mercado · Before Jan 21, 2029
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PolymarketReglas
If Trump issues a single pardon that names at least 25 Trump administration staff, or that covers Trump administration staff as a group by role, agency, or policy area, before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves to Yes if, during Trump's current Presidential term and before the deadline date, a single presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve names at least 25 Trump administration staff or covers Trump administration staff as a group by role, agency, or policy area. Trump administration staff refers to officials and employees of the executive branch (the Executive Office of the President, the executive departments, federal agencies, and the armed forces) who served at any time after Jan 20, 2025. Contractors and other non-employees are not Trump administration staff. A pardon covers staff as a group by role, agency, or policy area if it applies to everyone who held a role, worked at an agency, or worked on a policy, without naming each of them. The group must be defined by executive branch service. A single pardon is one proclamation, executive order, or warrant of clemency. A pardon counts even if no recipient has been charged with a crime, and even if a recipient rejects it. Examples: One proclamation pardoning all officers and employees of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement → resolves to Yes One proclamation pardoning all federal personnel for conduct relating to immigration enforcement → resolves to Yes One warrant naming 30 White House aides → resolves to Yes 40 separate warrants issued on the same day, each naming one aide → resolves to No The following do NOT count: Separate pardons that each name fewer than 25 staff, even if together they name more Pardons defined only by an offense or event and open to people regardless of executive branch service, unless the pardon names at least 25 Trump administration staff Pardons that cover only people whose executive branch service ended before Jan 20, 2025 State pardons
Reglas de cada resultado
- Before Jan 21, 2029
- If Trump issues a single pardon that names at least 25 Trump administration staff, or that covers Trump administration staff as a group by role, agency, or policy area, before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If Trump issues a single pardon that names at least 25 Trump administration staff, or that covers Trump administration staff as a group by role, agency, or policy area, before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Trump issues a single pardon that names at least 25 Trump administration staff, or that covers Trump administration staff as a group by role, agency, or policy area, before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
