2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.ElecciónElecciones de mitad de mandato de EE. UU. 20264m
KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requeridoDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPunto medio del libro seleccionado
R+0.9 to D+0.9 · —
Cargando el libro seleccionado…
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Precio guardado
R+0.9 to D+0.9 28%Líder entre 9 opciones
R+0.9 to D+0.9 28%Calidad del mercado
48 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
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Interés abierto
3,4 mil US$
Interés abierto medioCompra / Venta
— / —
R+0.9 to D+0.9Spread
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 minutos
1 oct 26, 18:00 UTC1 mar 27, 13:59 UTC
El gráfico y los cambios muestran probabilidades históricas guardadas, no el libro seleccionado en directo.
Tendencias
Fila seleccionada: punto medio del libro. Otras filas: referencias guardadas, posiblemente normalizadas; los cambios de 24h usan el historial guardado.
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Kalshi
Estas condiciones son informativas; las operaciones simuladas de CoinRithm siguen sus propias reglas.
- Cierre anticipado:
- Sí
- Plazo de liquidación:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidad de mercado · R+0.9 to D+0.9
Cargando el libro seleccionado…
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
Kalshi2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
PolymarketIf Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win?
Manifold MarketsGeneric Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (10/16-10/23)?
KalshiWill there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling?
Manifold MarketsReglas
If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -0.9 and 0.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The national House popular vote margin is the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election, as reported by the Clerk of the House, with each percentage taken over all votes cast; the margin is calculated from unrounded percentages and then rounded to one decimal place. The reference margin is the VoteHub 2026 generic congressional ballot margin (Democratic minus Republican, time-weighted) as displayed to one decimal place at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026. The value is the national House popular vote margin minus the reference margin: positive if Democrats outperform the reference margin and negative if Republicans do. Each range includes both of its endpoints.
Reglas de cada resultado
- R+0.9 to D+0.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -0.9 and 0.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+1 to D+2.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between 1 and 2.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+1 to R+2.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -2.9 and -1 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+3 to R+4.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -4.9 and -3 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+3 to D+4.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between 3 and 4.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+7 or more
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is at least 7 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+5 to R+6.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -6.9 and -5 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+7 or more
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is below -6.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+5 to D+6.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between 5 and 6.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.