2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
3.0 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.ElecciónElecciones de mitad de mandato de EE. UU. 20263m
KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requeridoDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPunto medio del libro seleccionado
Democrats, ≥2% · —
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Precio guardado
Democrats, ≥2% 95.5%Líder entre 13 opciones
Democrats, ≥2% 95.5%Calidad del mercado
63 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
2,6 mil €
Interés abierto
28,5 mil US$
Interés abierto altoCompra / Venta
— / —
Democrats, ≥2%Spread
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 minutos
15 sept 26, 16:00 UTC3 feb 27, 15:00 UTC
El gráfico y los cambios muestran probabilidades históricas guardadas, no el libro seleccionado en directo.
Tendencias
Fila seleccionada: punto medio del libro. Otras filas: referencias guardadas, posiblemente normalizadas; los cambios de 24h usan el historial guardado.
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Kalshi
Estas condiciones son informativas; las operaciones simuladas de CoinRithm siguen sus propias reglas.
- Cierre anticipado:
- Sí
- Plazo de liquidación:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidad de mercado · Democrats, ≥2%
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Manifold MarketsIf Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win?
Manifold MarketsReglas
If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 10 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives
- The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
Reglas de cada resultado
- Democrats, ≥2%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 2 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥4%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 4 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥5%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 5 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥6%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 6 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥7%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 7 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥8%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 8 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥9%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 9 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥10%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 10 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥11%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 11 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥12%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥13%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 13 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥14%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 14 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥16%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 16 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.