Brazil presidential runoff: who will win the vote abroad?
13.0 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffElecciónAmérica Latina1a
KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requeridoDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 52.6%-13.0ptAjustado por margen: las cotizaciones brutas sumaban más del 100% y se normalizaron.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 52.6%-13.0ptCalidad del mercado
67 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
1,3 mil €
Interés abierto
2,6 mil €
Interés abierto medioCompra / Venta
50.0% / 51.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Spread estrechoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 minutos
5 oct 26, 21:00 UTC25 oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Tendencias
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Kalshi
Estas condiciones son informativas; las operaciones simuladas de CoinRithm siguen sus propias reglas.
- Cierre anticipado:
- Sí
- Plazo de liquidación:
- 30m (informativo)
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Kalshi🇧🇷 Will Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff be decided by less than 3 percentage points?
Manifold MarketsBrazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad
PolymarketReglas
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in 1st place in the Exterior zone (Brazilian voters abroad) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
- Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: Rank is based on runoff vote totals only In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO. The Exterior zone is the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) results unit for votes cast by Brazilian voters outside Brazil; ranking uses its runoff totals, regardless of the national result.
Reglas de cada resultado
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in 1st place in the Exterior zone (Brazilian voters abroad) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Flávio Bolsonaro
- If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 1st place in the Exterior zone (Brazilian voters abroad) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.