🇧🇷 Will Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff be decided by less than 3 percentage points?
PolíticaOne-OffElecciónAmérica Latina17dManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 50.8%
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4
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 minutos
5 oct 26, 20:15 UTC24 oct 26, 17:00 UTC
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This market resolves YES if the absolute difference between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s and Flávio Bolsonaro’s shares of valid votes in the second round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election is less than 3.00 percentage points.
- For example, a 51.4%–48.6% result represents a 2.8-point margin and resolves YES.
- A 51.5%–48.5% result represents exactly 3.0 points and resolves NO.
- Resolution will use the final official valid-vote percentages published by Brazil’s Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE).
- Blank and invalid ballots are excluded.
- If the October 25 runoff is postponed, the market remains unresolved until the rescheduled vote occurs.