KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
Before Jan 1, 2028 50.9%Líder entre 3 opcionesAjustado por margen: las cotizaciones brutas sumaban más del 100% y se normalizaron.
Calidad del mercado
36 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
2 mil €
Liquidez
2 mil €
Baja liquidezSpread
10.0 pt
Spread amplioDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 minutos
17 sept 26, 0:00 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
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Kalshi[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurWhat grade will Anthropic get for existential safety in the FLI's AI Safety Index Winter 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
If federal legislation requiring independent AI safety evaluations or audits has become law after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying federal law must require a safety evaluation or audit of AI models, systems, or safety practices by an evaluator independent of the entity being reviewed.
- Government evaluators and independent outside organizations qualify.
- The review must substantively assess safety risks, testing, safeguards, or risk management; disclosure paperwork or self-attestation alone does not qualify.
- The law may cover a defined class of models or entities and may delegate technical standards to an agency.
- Self-assessments, voluntary programs, studies, and reviews limited to privacy, fairness, or transparency without a safety component do not qualify.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%+3.0pt97%
- Above 2.75%+34.0pt95%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 126,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 104,7 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.6pt69.9%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt14.6%
- Gemini+0.6pt7.8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,8 M €
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
- Alibaba-5.5pt69%
- Moonshot-4.0pt14%
- Z.ai+1.3pt6%
+8 resultados más
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,86%
- December 15,83%
- November 30,78%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%+9.0pt99%
- Above 4.5%+26.0pt56%
- Above 5.6%+8.0pt14%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+1.0pt87.3%
- Moonshot+0.8pt8.8%
- Z.ai-0.8pt2%
+8 resultados más
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law??
- Kalshi cotiza Before Jan 1, 2028 al 51% a fecha de 18 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law??
- Está previsto que When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law??
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If federal legislation requiring independent AI safety evaluations or audits has become law after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.