PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 76%-0.5%
Market quality
91 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$3.3K
Liquidity
$54.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
47.0% / 48.0%
Spread
2.1%
Tight spread7d Change
+19.5%
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jul 8, 26, 1:20 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3176%
Volume trend
$3.3kJul 819d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.