PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityYes 24%-0.0%
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$11.6
Liquidity
$14.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
22.0% / 26.0%
Spread
18.2%
Wide spread7d Change
-2.5%
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Dec 30, 25, 8:56 PMJan 1, 27, 5:00 AM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes24%
CoinRithm reference20%· 2 venues· ±4 pts
YesNo
KALSHI
Also available on Kalshi
Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?
8.3%5mo
-8.3%20%
80%
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$206.2K
24h Vol$871.5
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD).
- The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized.
- If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$12Jul 27d of dataJul 8
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD).
- The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized.
- If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.