PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 68%-0.5pt
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$642.8
Liquidity
$29K
High liquidityBid / Ask
31.0% / 33.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
8
7d Change
+5.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Dec 30, 25, 8:56 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:00 AM UTC
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD).
- The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized.
- If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.
Prediction Source Comparison
3 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 28%. Quotes span about 4 percentage points between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference 28% · 3 venues · 4 pt venue spread