Current implied probability
No 52.5%+3.5pt
No 52.5%+3.5ptMarket quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$43.7
Liquidity
$16.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
45.0% / 50.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
8
7d Change
+2.5 pts
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Dec 30, 25, 8:56 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:00 AM UTC
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD).
- The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized.
- If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.
Prediction Source Comparison
3 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 43%. The venue spread is about 44 percentage points.
CoinRithm reference 43% · 3 venues · 44 pt venue spread