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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Middle East
  3. Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

0.5% (24h)One-OffMiddle East18d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Bahrain
Bahrain 41%+32.5%
Leader of 19 outcomes
Market quality

73 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$38.1K

Liquidity

$92.3K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

8.0% / 10.0%

Spread

25.0%

Wide spread
7d Change

+2.0%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

May 22, 26, 9:36 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Bahrain41%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
  • For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman.
  • Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
  • For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman.
  • Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.