Current implied probability
Anthropic 96%+1.5%Leader of 26 outcomes
Market quality
80 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$2.2K
Liquidity
$98.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
94.0% / 97.0%
Spread
3.2%
Moderate spread7d Change
+1.5%
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Jun 4, 26, 7:26 PMJul 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Anthropic96%
Volume trend
$2.2kJul 27d of dataJul 8
Related Markets
Which company has best AI model end of July?
$120.1KAnthropic: 86%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Which company has the best Math AI model end of July?
$29.2KAnthropic: 66%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Top Coding AI this week
$13.9KChatGPT: 9%
KALSHI
KALSHI
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
$7KBy Dec 31, 2025: 74%
MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
$3.1K1510: 56%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETAnthropic acquired by Apple before 2030?
$2KYes: 2.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
UN's First AI Safety Panel Says Scientists Can't Rule Out 'Catastrophic Harm'Decrypt
Google Unveils Gemini 3.5, Android 17 AI Features in June 2026Blockchain.News
NVIDIA Explores RLVR for AI Agents with Nemotron 3 SuperBlockchain.News
Anthropic Launches Claude Sonnet 5: Mid-Tier AI with Opus-Level FeaturesBlockchain.News
X.ai Launches No-Code Voice Agent Builder for Grok VoiceBlockchain.NewsTogether AI Raises $800M Series C for Open-Source AI PushBlockchain.NewsRules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.
- If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”).
- This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.