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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Middle East
  3. US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

3.0% (24h)One-OffMiddle East1mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 33%-0.0%
Market quality

73 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$14.3K

Liquidity

$64.7K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

31.0% / 34.0%

Spread

9.7%

Wide spread
7d Change

-8.5%

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

May 26, 26, 5:16 AMJul 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes33%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
  • Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
  • The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$61,999.77+1.15%EthereumETH$1,633.32+0.58%SolanaSOL$64.39+0.09%DogecoinDOGE$0.0838-0.08%XRPXRP$1.11-0.96%BNBBNB$590.75+0.61%

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
  • Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
  • The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.