PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes
Resolved: Jun 15, 2026, 2:46 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Yes
At 7 days out
69%
At 24 hours out
81%
ConsensusCurrent implied probability
Yes 100%+0.2pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$103.7K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
96.0% / 97.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+28.0 pts
Market data
Updated 78 days ago
StaleNov 5, 25, 4:51 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
No0%
Yes100%
100%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.