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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Russia / Ukraine
  3. U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

One-OffRussia / Ukraine18d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 2%
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$198.2

Liquidity

$18.4K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

2.1% / 2.3%

Spread

9.5%

Wide spread
7d Change

+1.1%

Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Dec 28, 25, 11:12 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes2%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the Trump administration and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the United States to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
  • A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the United States must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations.
  • Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked.
  • Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify.
  • Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees.

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the Trump administration and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the United States to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
  • A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the United States must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations.
  • Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked.
  • Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify.
  • Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees.