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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Russia / Ukraine
  3. When will Russia capture Kostyantynivka?
Manifold Markets

When will Russia capture Kostyantynivka?

One-OffRussia / Ukraine6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Before February 0%
Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters

16

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Jan 3, 26, 2:19 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Manifold Markets
Before February
0%

Selected outcome

Before March1%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by January 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Manifold Markets
  • The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
  • If the area is not shaded red by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
  • See https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by for the full rules.
  • (https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/when-will-russia-capture-pokrovsk)

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by January 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Manifold Markets
  • The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
  • If the area is not shaded red by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
  • See https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by for the full rules.
  • (https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/when-will-russia-capture-pokrovsk)