PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: 59%-60%
Resolved: Jul 23, 2026, 2:16 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 23, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current implied probability
59%-60% 100%+59.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.6K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+74.0 pts
Market data
Updated 39 days ago
StaleJul 8, 26, 10:52 PMJul 23, 26, 12:00 PM
Probability Timeline
59%-60%100%
58%-59%43%
60%-61%17%
61%+12%
<58%42%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve according to Union Pacific's adjusted operating ratio for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.
- The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials.
- Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
- If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
- If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
