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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31?
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31?

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31?

GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope2mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 8%
Market quality

52 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$843

Liquidity

$12.5K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

7.0% / 9.0%

Spread

28.6%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 7 minutes ago

Jun 19, 26, 1:17 AMAug 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes8%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
  • Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
  • An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g.
  • If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
  • Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
  • An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g.
  • If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).