Current implied probability
Moonshot 91.2%+46.0ptLeader of 18 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3K
Liquidity
$12.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+42.5 pts
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Aug 12, 26, 11:40 PMAug 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
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Rules
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
- Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
- AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time.
- If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard.
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Aug 28, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $68,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $68,000 or above+3.0pt98%
- $70,000 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $434.2K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Aug 25, 2026?
- 85° to 86°+81.0pt95.2%
- 89° or above1%
- 83° to 84°-51.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $399.2K
KALSHIBitcoin price at the end of 2026
- 80,000 to 84,999.99-0.5pt10.8%
- 75,000 to 79,999.99-0.4pt10.8%
- 70,000 to 74,999.99-0.3pt8.8%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Aug 25, 2026?
- New Orleans+18.0pt99%
- Denver+14.0pt63%
- Oklahoma City+2.0pt14%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $233.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets August 24 - August 26, 2026?
- 65-89+21.5pt63.4%
- 40-64-3.0pt26.7%
- 90-114-12.1pt8.9%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Aug 25, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+42.0pt95.2%
- 90° to 91°-31.0pt1%
- 94° to 95°-11.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Elon Musk # tweets August 25 - September 1, 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company does Ox Alpha belong to?
- NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - Daily
- Highest temperature in New York City on Aug 25, 2026?
- Which company has best AI model end of August?
- How many launches will SpaceX have in August?
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by which date?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Aug 25, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Oklahoma City on Aug 25, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Third-best AI Agent Lab end of August??
- Polymarket prices Moonshot at 91% as of August 25, 2026.
- When does Third-best AI Agent Lab end of August? resolve?
- Third-best AI Agent Lab end of August? is scheduled to resolve on August 31, 2026.
- How is Third-best AI Agent Lab end of August? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.