PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No release by October 31 28%-1.5ptLeader of 32 outcomes
No release by October 31 28%-1.5ptMarket quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$997.4
Liquidity
$27.5K
High liquidityComments
0
7d Change
-2.1 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 22, 26, 11:55 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by which date?
PolymarketMuse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date
Manifold MarketsWhen will Meta release Muse Spark’s weights?
Manifold MarketsNext Muse Spark (1.4+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
- The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website.
