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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. AI
  3. New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?
New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?

New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?

2.1% (24h)AIOne-Off16d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
June 30
June 30 89%-3.6%
Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality

56 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$1.2K

Liquidity

$10.2K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

- / 0.1%

7d Change

-15.9%

Market data

Updated 7 minutes ago

Apr 30, 26, 12:14 AMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
May 31
May 31
0%
May 8
May 8
0%
May 22
May 22
0%
May 15
May 15
0%

Selected outcome

June 3089%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases or makes available a new Gemini reasoning flagship model to the general public by the specified date (ET).

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
  • Qualifying models must be positioned by Google as a next-generation, reasoning-focused flagship within the Gemini model line.
  • For example, qualifying models include newly released or newly made generally available (GA) reasoning-focused flagship models (e.g, Gemini 3.1 GA), or any new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variants (e.g., Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.4 Deep Think, Gemini 4 Ultra).
  • Models explicitly positioned for speed, efficiency, or low-cost inference that compromise reasoning capability will NOT qualify.
  • This includes, but is not limited to, variants such as Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, Nano, or similar lightweight or latency-optimized models, even if released under a new Gemini version number.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$64,174.65+1.21%EthereumETH$1,680.43+0.97%SolanaSOL$68.37+2.23%DogecoinDOGE$0.0884-0.14%BNBBNB$609.62+0.51%XRPXRP$1.16+2.09%

Related News

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases or makes available a new Gemini reasoning flagship model to the general public by the specified date (ET).

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
  • Qualifying models must be positioned by Google as a next-generation, reasoning-focused flagship within the Gemini model line.
  • For example, qualifying models include newly released or newly made generally available (GA) reasoning-focused flagship models (e.g, Gemini 3.1 GA), or any new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variants (e.g., Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.4 Deep Think, Gemini 4 Ultra).
  • Models explicitly positioned for speed, efficiency, or low-cost inference that compromise reasoning capability will NOT qualify.
  • This includes, but is not limited to, variants such as Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, Nano, or similar lightweight or latency-optimized models, even if released under a new Gemini version number.