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Megaquake by June 30?

Megaquake by June 30?

0.5% (24h)One-OffScience18d

PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee

Current implied probability

Yes

Yes 7%

Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

$7.4

Liquidity

$7.2K

Medium liquidity

Bid / Ask

6.0% / 7.0%

Spread

16.7%

Wide spread

7d Change

-1.5%

Market data

Updated 2 minutes ago

Dec 29, 25, 11:07 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes7%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

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Rules

A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.