PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 9%
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.4K
Liquidity
$8.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
8.0% / 9.0%
Spread
12.5%
Wide spread7d Change
-6.5%
Market data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Jun 17, 26, 8:08 PMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes9%
Volume trend
$2.4kJul 210d of dataJul 11
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A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
- If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
- If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.