PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityYes 12%-0.0%
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$10.3K
Liquidity
$40.7K
High liquidityBid / Ask
11.0% / 12.0%
Spread
9.1%
Wide spread7d Change
-3.0%
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
May 27, 26, 4:55 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Selected outcome
Yes12%
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions.
- A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
- A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
- General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.