PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability0.4-0.6% 63.6%+10.5ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$89.4
Liquidity
$7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
68.0% / 72.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spread7d Change
+32.0 pts
Market data
Updated 23 minutes ago
May 4, 26, 3:48 PMJul 30, 26, 6:00 AM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
0.4-0.6%70%
Compare venues· 0.4-0.6%
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 70% | — | $89.4 | $7K | 23 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi85% match · auto | Low | 99% | — | $0 | $2.4K | 23 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026
2d
99%
97%
94%
+12 more outcomes
30 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$2.9K
24h Vol$0
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
- The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
- The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%).
- Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$89Jul 227d of dataJul 28
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Rules
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
- The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
- The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%).
- Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.