PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 180-199
Resolved: Aug 28, 2026, 7:24 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 29, 2026, 12:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
180-199100%
160-1790%
320-3391%
300-3193%
280-2997%
140-1591%
260-2791%
60-790%
200-21912%
220-2394%
240-2591%
180-199Won
<20Lost
20-39Lost
40-59Lost
60-79Lost
80-99Lost
100-119Lost
120-139Lost
140-159Lost
160-179Lost
200-219Lost
220-239Lost
240-259Lost
260-279Lost
280-299Lost
300-319Lost
320-339Lost
340-359Lost
360-379Lost
380-399Lost
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ForecastExRules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 21 12:00 PM ET to August 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
- Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
- Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
- Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
- The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com.