PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No change (100%)
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 23, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current implied probabilityNo change 100%+0.5ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$71K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+1.3 pts
Market data
Updated 3 days ago
StaleApr 30, 26, 6:28 PMJul 23, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
25 bps Increase0%
No change99%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
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Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Kalshi
European Central Bank rate decision in July
Closed
Resolved
Maintain current rate (99%)
93.4%
+1.0pt1.9%
+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
38 • Low qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidity
Total Vol$61.7K
24h Vol$12.3K
KALSHI
Also available on Futuur
European Central Bank interest rate decision in July
Closed
Resolved
Maintain the same rate (97%)
93.3%
2.9%
1.9%
+1 more outcomes
13 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$475.5
24h Vol$1
FUTUURRules
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
- The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html).
- This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
- If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
- If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines.
- Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.1k98.9%POLYMARKETNoT12326d ago
POLYMARKETNoT12326d agoVolume trend
$71.0kJul 223d of dataJul 24
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This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
- The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html).
- This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
- If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
- If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines.
- Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps).