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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Central Banks
  3. ECB Interest Rates: July 2026
ECB Interest Rates: July 2026

ECB Interest Rates: July 2026

10.0% (24h)One-OffCentral Banks1mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
No change
No change 75%-15.5%
Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality

73 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$9.6K

Liquidity

$57K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

14.0% / 21.0%

Spread

50.0%

Wide spread
7d Change

-2.0%

Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Apr 30, 26, 6:32 PMJul 23, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
50+ bps increase
50+ bps increase
0%
25 bps decrease
25 bps decrease
0%

Selected outcome

No change75%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

Polymarket
  • The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html).
  • This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
  • If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
  • If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines.
  • Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps).

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,601.64+1.73%EthereumETH$1,652.38+1.39%SolanaSOL$65.07+0.84%DogecoinDOGE$0.0848+1.00%XRPXRP$1.12-0.33%BNBBNB$595.43+1.28%

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Rules

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

Polymarket
  • The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html).
  • This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
  • If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
  • If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines.
  • Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps).