Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack?
Chainlink
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No
Resolved: Jan 6, 2024, 12:31 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
No 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 147 days ago
StaleOct 10, 23, 8:17 PMDec 31, 23, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
100%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible evidence surfaces indicating that Israeli intelligence agencies or the Israeli government had foreknowledge of a specific attack by Hamas, linked to the October 7 attack, and took no action to prevent it by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The evidence must unequivocally demonstrate that the Israeli government or intelligence apparatus had substantial and specific information about an attack by Hamas prior to its occurrence and deliberately chose not to act. Generic or vague alerts, warnings, or intelligence without direct link to the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas will not be considered sufficient for this market's resolution.
- This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
