Current implied probability
<1.10ºC 38%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
26 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$20
Liquidity
$793.7
Low liquidityBid / Ask
9.0% / 66.0%
Spread
57.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 28, 26, 5:50 PMSep 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
<1.10ºC38%
Volume trend
$20Jul 282d of dataJul 29
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KALSHI
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$0.1Yes: 38%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Rules
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
- An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
- If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
- If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.