Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 51%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 16, 26, 10:04 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Timothée Chalamet wins an Academy Award (in any category) before January 1, 2030.
- Resolution will be verified via the official Academy Awards website or major entertainment news outlets reporting the award win.
- The market resolves NO if he does not win an Oscar by the deadline.
- Chalamet has received four Academy Award nominations, most recently at the 2026 Oscars.
- He was previously nominated for Call Me by Your Name in 2018 and A Complete Unknown in 2025, and was nominated for Best Actor in a Leading Role for his portrayal of Marty Mauser in Marty Supreme at the 2026 ceremony.