Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 77%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleOct 7, 26, 9:01 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:00 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if a new prediction market company or independent trading platform launches to the public between October 7, 2026, and December 31, 2029, inclusive.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- To qualify as a "new prediction market company or platform," the launch must meet all of the following criteria:
- New Entity/Platform: It must be a newly incorporated company, an independent startup, or a brand-new decentralized protocol launched after October 7, 2026.
- Exclusions: A new feature, tab, or service introduced by an already existing company (e.g., Robinhood, Coinbase, or Interactive Brokers adding event contracts) does not qualify, unless it is spun out into a distinct, newly incorporated corporate entity.
