Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77.7%
Forecasters
56
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJun 2, 24, 7:17 PM UTCMar 5, 31, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
[Metaculus] Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Harris, Texas in 2026?
ForecastExWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Texas in 2026?
ForecastExWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Florida in 2026?
ForecastExRules
Resolves as YES if, by January 1st, 2031, a decentralized platform that aims to provide a similar or superior service to Wikipedia has been widely recognized as a major competitor.
- This platform must meet the following criteria:
- Decentralized Nature: The platform must operate on a decentralized network, such as a blockchain or other distributed ledger technology, without a single point of control.
- User Base: It must have a substantial user base, comparable to or exceeding 15% of Wikipedia's active monthly users.
- Content Quality and Quantity: The platform should host a significant amount of content, with both the quality and breadth of articles comparable to Wikipedia.
- Recognition: It must be recognized by reputable sources in the technology or information sectors as a major competitor to Wikipedia.
Open markets
Crypto
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.9pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+32.5pt87%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
- 70,000+0.4pt100%
- 72,000+0.6pt100%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- ↓ 60,000+10.4pt100%
- ↑ 80,000+11.9pt100%
- ↑ 75,000+30.4pt100%
+43 more outcomes
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- BTC 15 min · $78,497.72 target
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 8?
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a major decentralized Wikipedia competitor before 2031??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a major decentralized Wikipedia competitor before 2031? resolve?
- Will there be a major decentralized Wikipedia competitor before 2031? is scheduled to resolve on March 5, 2031.
- How is Will there be a major decentralized Wikipedia competitor before 2031? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if, by January 1st, 2031, a decentralized platform that aims to provide a similar or superior service to Wikipedia has been widely recognized as a major competitor.