Will there be a live action planecrash adaptation before 2029? (Including in development)
EntertainmentOne-Off2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 75.8%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJun 3, 26, 6:14 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Has to involve actual people, AI doesn't count.
- Can be in development.
- 'You know it when you see it' standard of actually being serious and a real thing which could be elaborated on if necessary
- https://x.com/EigenGender/status/2062056939283247513
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
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- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
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KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a live action planecrash adaptation before 2029? (Including in development)?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 76% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a live action planecrash adaptation before 2029? (Including in development) resolve?
- Will there be a live action planecrash adaptation before 2029? (Including in development) is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Will there be a live action planecrash adaptation before 2029? (Including in development) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Has to involve actual people, AI doesn't count.