Will there be a child polymath of unprecedented talent before 2045?
SportsOne-OffChessSociety & CultureScience18yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71.6%
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13
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleAug 5, 24, 8:33 AM UTCJan 2, 45, 7:59 AM UTC
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Rules
This question gauges whether the most exceptional human juniors in the coming decades will significantly surpass the best modern-day humans in world-class academic breadth.
- Resolves YES if, before 2045, a well-profiled biological human individual under the age of 18 appears to be capable of the following academic feats, each within at most one-month of challenge-specific preparation.
- 100+ on the Putnam
- Gold medals in the
- At least one of the IChO or IBO
- 2500 Chess FIDE rating
