Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 5:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 68.3%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleSep 17, 23, 10:16 AM UTCJan 1, 36, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the human population exceed 9 billion by the year 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the US population exceed 500 million by 2050?
Manifold MarketsBefore which quarters will Canada's population exceed 42 million?
Manifold MarketsIn which census will the California population first exceed 40 million?
Manifold MarketsWill global carbon dioxide emissions exceed 45,000 million metric tons in 2035?
ForecastExWill global carbon dioxide emissions exceed 47,500 million metric tons in 2035?
ForecastExRules
YES = The population will be greater than 70 million before 1st of January 2036 NO = The population will not be greater than 70 million before 1st of January 2036 https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/
