Current community forecast
No 66%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 1, 26, 12:52 PM UTCApr 1, 29, 12:37 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Italy crashed out of qualifying for the World Cup.
- Does narrative causality dictate the next pope is going to be Italian?
- Resolution Criteria.
- I will be liberal in interpreting what counts as Italian.
- At least one italian grandparent counts, but not recursively.
- Having been an immigrant to Italy for over three years at time of enthronement counts.
Open markets
SportsKALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Ben Shelton+49.0pt70.3%
- Carlos Alcaraz-49.0pt29.7%
- Total Vol
- $26.4M
- 24h Vol
- $24.7M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Quarter Finals match
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt59.7%
- Carlos Alcaraz40.3%
- Total Vol
- $534.5K
- 24h Vol
- $6.5M
POLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz
- Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 9.5+37.5pt100%
- Alcaraz Set 2 Winner+67.5pt100%
- Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 3.5+39.5pt100%
+23 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Bayern Munich13.3%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28.6M
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R13.9%
- Buffalo6.6%
- Seattle6.6%
+29 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $86.1M
- 24h Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Alexander Zverev+11.0pt38%
- Ben Shelton+20.0pt28%
- Carlos Alcaraz-37.0pt19%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $30M
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- MVP Winner?
- New England vs Seattle
- Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Exact Match Score
- Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Set 3 Winner
- Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
- Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Total Games
- 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
- Heisman Trophy Winner
- Barcelona vs Feyenoord
- College Football National Championship Winner
- Counter-Strike: 5star vs TheMongolz (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the next pope be Italian??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 66% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the next pope be Italian? resolve?
- Will the next pope be Italian? is scheduled to resolve on April 1, 2029.
- How is Will the next pope be Italian? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Italy crashed out of qualifying for the World Cup.