Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 51.7%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleSep 7, 23, 1:16 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
By the end of 2027 will a deepfake of a famous person be reported as real by mainstream news organizations
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
KalshiRules
Positive (YES): Hype piece, predicted something way ahead, charity donations, etc.
- First mention: from this day forward
- Update 2026-08-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A mention citing Manifold's odds or data (e.g., "Prediction site Manifold Markets says that the odds of [event] happening are %x") will resolve as YES (Positive), as it provides credibility to the site.
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive? resolve?
- Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Positive (YES): Hype piece, predicted something way ahead, charity donations, etc.