Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 53.3%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Oct 6, 26, 8:53 PM UTCOct 30, 26, 8:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Resolves YES if, after market creation and through Friday October 30, 2026 at 4:00 p.m. America/New_York (20:00 UTC), the final scheduled cash session of October, the S&P 500 cash price index (SPX / ^GSPC) records a regular-session intraday level of at least 8,000.
- An exact touch counts; no closing level is required.
- Otherwise NO.
- Only the cash price index counts, not SPY, futures, perpetuals, CFDs or total-return indices.
- Earlier touches do not count.
- YES may resolve early using a timestamped cash-index quote or session high from WSJ or MarketWatch, corroborated by the other provider or S&P Dow Jones Indices.