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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Regulation
  3. Will SpaceX complete an initial public offering (IPO) by the end of 2026 and at what valuation?
Manifold Markets

Will SpaceX complete an initial public offering (IPO) by the end of 2026 and at what valuation?

RegulationAITech6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
No IPO by Dec 31, 2026 0.2%
Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters

17

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Stale
Feb 19, 26, 9:30 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Manifold Markets
No IPO by Dec 31, 2026
0.2%
Manifold Markets
Yes — valuation under $500B
0.2%
Manifold Markets
Yes — valuation $500B–$1T
0.2%

Selected outcome

Yes — valuation $1T–$1.5T4%

Rules

Resolution Criteria

Manifold Markets
  • SpaceX has confirmed a target IPO date of 2026.
  • This market resolves based on whether an IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, and at what valuation.
  • Resolution will be determined by the official IPO pricing as reported by major financial news outlets (Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Financial Times) and SEC filings.
  • If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, the market resolves to "No IPO by June 30, 2026." If an IPO occurs after June 30, 2026, but before year-end, it resolves to the appropriate valuation bracket.
  • If market conditions prevent an IPO from occurring by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to "No IPO by June 30, 2026."

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Rules

Resolution Criteria

Manifold Markets
  • SpaceX has confirmed a target IPO date of 2026.
  • This market resolves based on whether an IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, and at what valuation.
  • Resolution will be determined by the official IPO pricing as reported by major financial news outlets (Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Financial Times) and SEC filings.
  • If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, the market resolves to "No IPO by June 30, 2026." If an IPO occurs after June 30, 2026, but before year-end, it resolves to the appropriate valuation bracket.
  • If market conditions prevent an IPO from occurring by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to "No IPO by June 30, 2026."