Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 78.7%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleSep 11, 23, 6:06 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if a post made by @ScottAlexander (e.g. on Astral Codex Ten) between 2023-09-11 and 2034-12-31 (inclusive) is an "all-time" post in my judgement by the end of 2034.
- UTC times will be used.
- Only posts by Scott count.
- For example, the book review contest submissions do not count (unless one of them is later revealed to have been written by Scott).
- Motivation: Meditations on Moloch was written about ten years ago.
- It is widely acknowledged as a seminal post both on Slate Star Codex, as well as in the rationalist discourse.
