Will "Schelling Goodness, and Shared Morality as a Goal" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffSociety & Culture1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.4%
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2
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binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 3, 26, 11:39 AM UTCFeb 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will "Let goodness conquer all that it can defend" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Announcing the Corrigibility Research Fund" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "An OpenAI model left notes about how to evade..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
KalshiRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Schelling Goodness, and Shared Morality as a Goal is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35.8K
- 24h Vol
- $20.9K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Total Vol
- $10.2K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.5K
- 24h Vol
- $487.1
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will "Schelling Goodness, and Shared Morality as a Goal" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will "Schelling Goodness, and Shared Morality as a Goal" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? resolve?
- Will "Schelling Goodness, and Shared Morality as a Goal" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2028.
- How is Will "Schelling Goodness, and Shared Morality as a Goal" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.