When does Will Satoshi Nakamoto tip Curtis Yarvin? resolve?

Will Satoshi Nakamoto tip Curtis Yarvin? is scheduled to resolve on October 20, 2026.

How is Will Satoshi Nakamoto tip Curtis Yarvin? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://graymirror.substack.com/p/us-60735250-and-the-roots-of-bitcoin (see the end of the post)

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: No (97.8%)

Resolved: Oct 21, 2026, 6:58 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 10:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Stale

Oct 22, 25, 10:24 AM UTCOct 20, 26, 10:59 PM UTC

Won

Yes

Lost

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

What price will Bitcoin hit October 19-25?

Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?

Bitcoin price at the end of 2026

Rules

https://graymirror.substack.com/p/us-60735250-and-the-roots-of-bitcoin (see the end of the post)

Resolves YES if any of the bitcoin addresses known to be Satoshi Nakamoto's (e.g. the genesis address) transfers any amount of bitcoin (even one satoshi would suffice) to Yarvin's address in the final section of the post linked above, within one year of the date of the post (so, by 20 Oct 2026 23:01:52 UTC)
[link preview]