KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityBefore August 2026 1%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$118.7K
Liquidity
$4.3M
High liquidityBid / Ask
- / 1.0%
Market data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Apr 4, 26, 5:00 PMAug 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before August 20261%
Compare venues· Before January 2027
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | High | 4% | — | $118.7K | $4.3M | 19 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets85% match · verified | — | 41% | — | — | — | 22 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
When will Bitcoin hit $150K?
4y
+10.3%40.5%
-0.4%1.8%
-0.3%1.5%
+47 more outcomes
Community forecast10 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If the price of Bitcoin is above 149999.99 by May 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Contract is settled by taking an average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in any sixty second period, excluding the top 20% and bottom 20% of values.
- Data is used 24/7 to resolve the contract.
- If the price of Bitcoin is above 149999.99 by || Date || at || Time ||, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the price of Bitcoin is above || Count || by || Date || at || Time ||, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.3k97.0%KALSHIBefore January 2027 — No6d ago
KALSHIBefore January 2027 — No6d ago$1.9k97.0%KALSHIBefore January 2027 — No6d ago
KALSHIBefore January 2027 — No6d ago$2.6k97.0%KALSHIBefore January 2027 — No6d ago
KALSHIBefore January 2027 — No6d ago$1.9k97.0%KALSHIBefore January 2027 — No6d ago
KALSHIBefore January 2027 — No6d ago$1.7k99.0%KALSHIBefore September 2026 — No14d ago
KALSHIBefore September 2026 — No14d ago$3.0k99.0%KALSHIBefore September 2026 — No14d ago
KALSHIBefore September 2026 — No14d agoVolume trend
$118.7kJul 222d of dataJul 23
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KALSHIActive in these topics
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If the price of Bitcoin is above 149999.99 by May 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Contract is settled by taking an average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in any sixty second period, excluding the top 20% and bottom 20% of values.
- Data is used 24/7 to resolve the contract.
- If the price of Bitcoin is above 149999.99 by || Date || at || Time ||, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the price of Bitcoin is above || Count || by || Date || at || Time ||, then the market resolves to Yes.