Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.7%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleDec 11, 25, 10:21 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This is a market on whether Polyoptions' total trading volume in 2026 is greater than or equal to $100,000,000.00 (as rounded to the nearest penny), according to official trading volume as first reported for that period, or portion thereof, at https://polyoptions.com/.
- Trading volume will be measured in notional value, which equals the USD payout value of the underlying Polymarket positions.
- If total trading volume in 2026 is less than $100,000,000.00 or if no such official data is published at that site on or before January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Should Polyoptions change its name or URL, the relevant successor site will be used as the resolutions source.
- Should Polyoptions merge with or be acquired by another platform prior to year-end and prior to trigerring a "Yes" resolution, such that Polyoptions' volume can not be disaggregated from that of its acquirer or merger partner, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Update 2025-12-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Volume calculation example: A call option on 100 Polymarket shares that costs $2 to trade counts as $100 of volume (based on the notional value of the underlying shares, not the option premium paid).