Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76.8%
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82
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 22 minutes ago
Nov 2, 22, 7:43 PM UTCDec 2, 29, 5:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
At the end of 2029, I will make an assessment of the total number of 4-wheel cars in the US, whether they be owned or leased by individuals, or whether they are still parts of experimental fleets from self-driving car companies.
- I will try to determine the total number of such cars that use some form of LIDAR, and if more than half do, this resolves YES.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- Update for detail: What I am going for here is the sort of vehicles that Tesla, Waymo, Cruise etc. are making.
- Vehicles that are ostensibly designed to drive themselves (even if in terms of software, they might not be able to do that yet with 100% reliability).
- In terms of the level system, this maps on to about L3 and above.