Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 76.8%
Forecasters
82
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleNov 2, 22, 7:43 PM UTCDec 2, 29, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiRules
At the end of 2029, I will make an assessment of the total number of 4-wheel cars in the US, whether they be owned or leased by individuals, or whether they are still parts of experimental fleets from self-driving car companies.
- I will try to determine the total number of such cars that use some form of LIDAR, and if more than half do, this resolves YES.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- Update for detail: What I am going for here is the sort of vehicles that Tesla, Waymo, Cruise etc. are making.
- Vehicles that are ostensibly designed to drive themselves (even if in terms of software, they might not be able to do that yet with 100% reliability).
- In terms of the level system, this maps on to about L3 and above.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 77% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR? resolve?
- Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR? is scheduled to resolve on December 2, 2029.
- How is Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: At the end of 2029, I will make an assessment of the total number of 4-wheel cars in the US, whether they be owned or leased by individuals, or whether they are still parts of experimental fleets from self-driving car companies.