Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82.9%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 33 minutes ago
Nov 1, 25, 2:44 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This refers to the Multiple Choice market type which maintains a total percentage across all options, not the Set type.
- To enable easier trading on markets like "Who will be in the top 5" or "Which of these 10 will be selected", it would be possible to set up a market with enough Yes shares that 10 separate answers could all resolve to 100%.
- The new market structure must improve capital efficiency compared to the existing structure of "All 5 resolve to 20% each" that people sometimes do.
- I'm the final arbiter of whether something counts.
- Resolves Yes if Manifold implements this before 2027 and it goes live long enough for at least one market to be created.
- Resolves No otherwise.
