Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 88.8%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleFeb 26, 25, 8:09 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves yes if at any time before EOY 2030, there is an official and publicly accessible system on the Manifold website and/or app that:
- Allows players to lend mana to each other.
- Forces the players that were loaned some mana to pay the amount they have to pay at the due date (If they can't pay it off entirely, they have to be forced to pay as much of it as possible).
- (If the players can renegotiate the terms of the contract before the due date, this will still resolve yes.)
- Update 2025-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Resolution Clarification:
- The system must force repayment in such a way that the lender receives at least as much as the borrower can provide.
