Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.6%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJul 7, 26, 1:27 PM UTCJun 30, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Google deploys ads in Gemini web or mobile app by end of 2026
Manifold MarketsOpenAI deploys ads in ChatGPT web or mobile app by end of 2026
Manifold MarketsAnthropic deploys ads in Claude web or mobile app by end of 2026
Manifold MarketsBiggest AI romance app more users than biggest human romance app on July 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?
PolymarketBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRules
Right now the app involves using the manifold website to access at least on Iphone.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, before July 1, 2027, Manifold Markets releases an official mobile application (for iOS and/or Android) that is built using a native UI framework (such as SwiftUI, Jetpack Compose, Flutter, or fully-native React Native UI elements), rather than primarily rendering their Next.js web application inside a WebView wrapper.
- Specifically:
- The mobile app must render its core features (including browsing markets, placing bets, and viewing profiles) natively rather than pulling in the standard web interface via an iframe, WebView, or PWA-equivalent shell.
- Evidence of a native rebuild can come from official developer updates, the Manifold Changelog, Manifold's Substack, or public repository updates on the Manifold GitHub showing a transition away from react-native-webview wrapper code.