Will Magic Kingdom have a fireworks show every night from August 12 to September 10?”
WeatherOne-OffEntertainment2dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 53.6%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Aug 11, 26, 11:47 PM UTCSep 10, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Magic Kingdom at Walt Disney World hosts at least one official nighttime fireworks spectacular on every single calendar night from August 12, 2026, through September 10, 2026 (inclusive, Eastern Time).
- This market will resolve to NO if, on any calendar night within this date range, no fireworks show is performed at Magic Kingdom for any reason—including but not limited to severe weather, high winds, technical failures, schedule alterations, or park closures.
- Clarifications:
- What counts: Both the standard Happily Ever After show and the special party-exclusive Disney’s Not-So-Spooky Spectacular (shown during Mickey's Not-So-Scary Halloween Party nights) count as valid fireworks shows.
- Delays: A show that is delayed but is ultimately performed on that calendar day (even if late) will count toward a YES resolution.
Open markets
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+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $274.9K
- 24h Vol
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- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
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+19 more outcomes
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- 92° to 93°+43.0pt89.3%
- 94° or above+2.0pt6.8%
- 90° to 91°-36.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 80° to 81°+25.0pt70.9%
- 82° to 83°-15.0pt22.3%
- 79° or below-4.0pt3.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- Total Vol
- $77.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.2K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Magic Kingdom have a fireworks show every night from August 12 to September 10?”?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 54% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Magic Kingdom have a fireworks show every night from August 12 to September 10?” resolve?
- Will Magic Kingdom have a fireworks show every night from August 12 to September 10?” is scheduled to resolve on September 10, 2026.
- How is Will Magic Kingdom have a fireworks show every night from August 12 to September 10?” settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria