Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (96.6%)
Resolved: Sep 30, 2026, 3:09 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 30, 2026, 11:41 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes96.6%
No3.400000000000006%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
In an interview, he said:
- After writing two nonfiction books, I do miss writing fiction and feel called back to it, so that’s what I’m working on now ...
- I think [my next book will be fiction], but if you had asked me after my previous book, I would have said the same.
- I never imagined I would go down this rabbit hole with TB.
- His past two books, Everything is Tuberculosis (2025) and The Anthropocene Reviewed (2021) were nonfiction.
- Prior to that, he authored or coauthored seven fiction novels, most recently Turtles All the Way Down (2017) and The Fault in Our Stars (2012).